Black Democrat Alvin Brown scored a come from behind upset victory in Jacksonville’s mayor’s race over establishment Republican Mike Hogan. Thumbs down to Republican Mike Hogan’s campaign for letting the Brown take Republican issues and beat the GOP at its own game in one of Florida’s most Republican strongholds. Mr. Brown won by a very slim margin, just over 1600 votes, and had the support of many Republican moderates and business leaders. He ran as a centrist and hence was able to attract moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats—a key combination in the conservative stronghold of Jacksonville. His advisers obviously knew that the only way to win, especially as a Black Democrat in conservative Duval County, was to wrap him in a centrist-moderate “blanket.”
First, he positioned himself as a “conservative Democrat.” It is respectable to say you are a “conservative Democrat” but not so if one says he or she is a “conservative Republican.” The media and liberals seem to find the former much more appealing because of the “Democrat” label. Most revealing to that strategy was his comment in a March 28 interview with the Florida Times Union when he responded to an interviewer’s comment that his base “has been black liberals.” His answer: ‘I don’t think that’s my base.” If a white or Black Republican candidate had said that, there would have been hell to pay. There was no response from his Republican opponent. Even if Mr. Hogan chose not to respond, his campaign apparently had no Black surrogates to challenge Brown on the comment. This would surely have been the case if the shoe were on the other foot. An immediate response would have put Brown on the defensive right out of the Primary box and taken him off message.
Second, he chose the right issues. While the state Democrat Party and its minority voices in the Legislature and elsewhere were blasting Governor Rick Scott, Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll and the Republican controlled Legislature for their programs for job creation and educational reform, Brown took a page from the GOP agenda. His message was “jobs, putting Jacksonville back to work, public safety, education and fiscal responsibility.” Sounds like the Scott-Carroll campaign theme last fall. In other words, Brown made GOP issues his vision and used them against his Republican opponent. That made it easier for moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats to rally behind him.
A major failure of the Hogan campaign was not reaching out to the 5,000 plus Black Republicans and over 13,000 Black Independents in Duval County. Brown’s slim victory, as was the case with the Governor’s race last fall, shows again that “every vote counts.” If you add Asian and Hispanic Republican and Independent voters in Duval, there were over 39,000 potential votes to go after in these groups alone.
As for the typical GOP argument that all Blacks are going to go with the Democrat, especially if the candidate is Black, even the Black press in Jacksonville stated that Brown had to go after the Black vote. As the Jacksonville Free Press prophetically stated after the Primary: “Only 39, 060 voters of color cast a ballot. But, if Brown finds a way to energize the community the same way they were moved in 2008 – he stands a big chance of moving into the top floor of City Hall. The best analogy about the statistics is that it can be done in Jacksonville. The reality is Black voters collectively along with a handful of their democratic colleagues can elect Alvin Brown as Mayor.” The paper sent an even stronger message to Hogan: “Thus far Hogan has kept a firm distance from Black Jacksonville. He has refused to appear at diverse forums and has done no marketing to the urban community… ‘It almost seems like he thinks he doesn’t need our vote’, said Callis Fordham.”
Obviously the Hogan camp never got the message. It is ironic is that Brown did reach out to Sam Newby who is not only the former Vice Chairman of the Duval county GOP, but also is Chairman of the Florida Assembly of Black Republicans. Hogan did not–despite the significant number of Black Republicans and Independents in the potential voter pool. This is especially short sighted given the fact that Duval has probably the best GOP minority outreach and inclusion effort in the state led by County Chairman Lenny Curry and Newby. Hogan should have sought—and heeded—the advice of its homegrown Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll. I am sure her thoughts and ideas on issues and voter group inclusion would have been beneficial. It’s her county and she obviously knows how to get votes.
As mentioned above, Brown co-opted Hogan on key Republican issues. What should Hogan have done to reach out to Black voters?
In education, Duval county has a Black male graduate rate of only 23%–16% below the state’s own poor rate of 39%. Closely rated is the “school to prison” pipeline where a disproportionate number of minority students are sent to the juvenile justice system for petty offenses and misdemeanors. It is not just “education”. Education has many components including “quality”, parental choice, vouchers, and teacher accountability and adhering to the new Zero Tolerance law refinements which were authored by the Lt. Governor and Senator Stephen Wise a few years ago. In most cases Democrats, due to allegiance to teachers’ union bosses, keep those discussions in the closet.
As to jobs and business development, the Hogan campaign should have taken a page from the recent standing room only meeting for Governor Rick Scott and Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll with minority business leaders, Black press and clergy arranged by the Newby and the Assembly. Hogan should have courted and met with such a group to discuss their issues. Of course, he could not take the page if he never opened the book of outreach in the first place.
For over thirty years, Black Republicans have been trying to make the GOP understand that most white moderate and conservative Republicans appreciate their candidates showing that they want to be inclusive. They do not relish when their Democrat friends—and the media– tell them that the Party does not care about minorities. They are given no ammunition to return the fire. When Republicans show they care, there is usually a positive response. This was evidenced a few weeks ago at the Republican party of Florida’s Quarterly meeting when an Assembly representative received a standing ovation when she outlined how the Assembly and Party could and should work together to elect Republican candidates.
Finally, as to allegations that the Hogan campaign catered too much to the Tea Party which hurt it with Blacks, this is “straw man” which Democrats use to divide Republicans. The GOP needs to work with both groups. Tea Party members were instrumental in the victory of Angie Boyton in Marion County, Alan West in South Florida and Tim Scott in South Carolina—all Blck Republicans. They also are big supporters of Herman Cain, a Black Republican, who won a live straw poll at an Arizona Tea Party Summit in February. So the argument that courting the Tea Party and reaching out to Black, Hispanic, Asian Republicans and Independents is inconsistent does not hold water.
Only time will tell if Republican candidates will learn the lesson. All they have to do is take a look at the 2010 Census to see how our state’s demographics are changing. It is up to the local, state and national Republican candidates, whether they will be waving a “white” flag of defeat and exclusions; or, a “white, Black and Brown” flag of victory and inclusion after votes are counted in 2012.
Jennifer Carroll’s historic election should send a message to all black voters and black elected officials. The first black person to be elected lieutenant-governor in the Deep South since Reconstruction, she is one of the highest-ranking black Republicans and state-wide elected officials — black or white — in the United States.
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